West Nile Virus Mosquito Crossover Dates
During 2005, the models were run weekly from May 3 until August 2 when the model values converged. Shown below are the model results of August 2, which includes a summarization of the all of the model simulations.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE EXCEEDANCE
MODEL (Threshold of 81°F):
How to Interpret the Model Results
| 81°F MAX TEMP MODEL - CURRENT MODEL RUN: | 8/2/2005 |
| Based on the current model run there is: | |
• a 50 percent chance that the crossover date will be later than |
July 26, 2005 |
• a 90 percent chance it will be earlier than |
July 26, 2005 |
| • and a 10 percent chance it will be earlier than | July 26, 2005 |
• The current run of the model has a median crossover date of |
July 26, 2005 |
• The earliest crossover date projected by the current model run is |
July 26, 2005 |
• The latest crossover date projected by the current model run is |
July 26, 2005 |
Model Run History for the Current Year
| 81°F Max Temp Model | |||||||
| Model Run Date 2005 | Probability that crossover will occur earlier than given date | ||||||
| Earliest | 10 percent | 25 percent | MEDIAN | 75 percent | 90 percent | Latest | |
| 5/3 | 7/7 | 7/22 | 7/28 | 8/8 | 8/16 | 8/26 | 9/27 |
| 5/10 | 7/5 | 7/21 | 7/25 | 8/4 | 8/14 | 8/22 | 9/21 |
| 5/17 | 7/8 | 7/20 | 7/24 | 8/2 | 8/14 | 8/20 | 9/23 |
| 5/24 | 7/13 | 7/20 | 7/24 | 8/2 | 8/14 | 8/19 | 9/18 |
| 5/31 | 7/16 | 7/22 | 7/26 | 8/4 | 8/15 | 8/18 | 9/18 |
| 6/7 | 7/16 | 7/21 | 7/24 | 8/1 | 8/10 | 8/15 | 9/16 |
| 6/14 | 7/18 | 7/21 | 7241 | 7/31 | 8/7 | 8/15 | 9/13 |
| 6/21 | 7/23 | 7/25 | 7/30 | 8/2 | 8/11 | 8/15 | 9/12 |
| 6/28 | 7/23 | 7/24 | 7/26 | 7/31 | 8/5 | 8/11 | 8/26 |
| 7/5 | 7/24 | 7/24 | 7/25 | 7/28 | 8/2 | 8/6 | 8/25 |
| 7/12 | 7/24 | 7/24 | 7/24 | 7/26 | 7/30 | 8/1 | 8/12 |
| 7/19 | 7/26 | 7/26 | 7/26 | 7/27 | 7/31 | 8/2 | 8/15 |
| 7/26 | 7/26 | 7/26 | 7/26 | 7/26 | 7/26 | 7/26 | 7/26 |
| 8/2 | 7/26 | 7/26 | 7/26 | 7/26 | 7/26 | 7/26 | 7/26 |
DEGREE DAY MODEL:
How to Interpret the Model Results
| DEGREE DAY MODEL - CURRENT MODEL RUN: | 8/2/2005 |
| Based on the current model run there is: | |
• a 50 percent chance that the crossover date will be later than |
August 1, 2005 |
• a 90 percent chance it will be earlier than |
August 1, 2005 |
| • and a 10 percent chance it will be earlier than | August 1, 2005 |
• The current run of the model has a median crossover date of |
August 1, 2005 |
• The earliest crossover date projected by the current model run is |
August 1, 2005 |
• The latest crossover date projected by the current model run is |
August 1, 2005 |
Model Run History for the Current Year
| Degree Day Model | |||||||
| Model Run Date 2005 | Probability that crossover will occur earlier than given date | ||||||
| Earliest | 10 percent | 25 percent | MEDIAN | 75 percent | 90 percent | Latest | |
| 5/3 | 7/7 | 7/23 | 8/1 | 8/12 | 8/25 | 8/31 | 9/19 |
| 5/10 | 7/8 | 7/22 | 7/31 | 8/11 | 8/22 | 8/30 | 9/18 |
| 5/17 | 7/11 | 7/24 | 7/30 | 8/11 | 8/24 | 8/30 | 9/19 |
| 5/24 | 7/14 | 7/23 | 8/3 | 8/12 | 8/24 | 8/31 | 9/18 |
| 5/31 | 7/17 | 7/28 | 8/5 | 8/15 | 8/25 | 9/2 | 9/17 |
| 6/7 | 7/16 | 7/27 | 8/3 | 8/12 | 8/21 | 8/30 | 9/15 |
| 6/14 | 7/17 | 7/23 | 7/31 | 8/9 | 8/16 | 8/23 | 9/11 |
| 6/21 | 7/19 | 7/27 | 8/3 | 8/12 | 8/19 | 8/25 | 9/11 |
| 6/28 | 7/16 | 7/26 | 7/31 | 8/6 | 8/12 | 8/18 | 8/29 |
| 7/5 | 7/17 | 7/28 | 7/31 | 8/5 | 8/11 | 8/14 | 8/26 |
| 7/12 | 7/25 | 7/29 | 7/31 | 8/4 | 8/9 | 8/13 | 8/25 |
| 7/19 | 7/26 | 7/29 | 7/31 | 8/2 | 8/5 | 8/9 | 8/19 |
| 7/26 | 7/28 | 7/29 | 7/29 | 7/30 | 7/31 | 8/1 | 8/9 |
| 8/2 | 8/1 | 8/1 | 8/1 | 8/1 | 8/1 | 8/1 | 8/1 |
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