West Nile Virus Mosquito Crossover Dates
During 2006, the models were run weekly from May 2 until August 8 when the model values converged. Shown below are the model results of August 8, which includes a summarization of the all of the model simulations.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE EXCEEDANCE
MODEL (Threshold of 81°F):
How to Interpret the Model Results
| 81°F MAX TEMP MODEL - CURRENT MODEL RUN: |
8/8/2006 |
| Based on the current model run there is: | |
|
• a 50 percent chance that the crossover date will be later than |
July 30, 2006 |
|
• a 90 percent chance it will be earlier than |
July 30, 2006 |
| • and a 10 percent chance it will be earlier than | July 30, 2006 |
|
• The current run of the model has a median crossover date of |
July 30, 2006 |
|
• The earliest crossover date projected by the current model run is |
July 30, 2006 |
|
• The latest crossover date projected by the current model run is |
July 30, 2006 |
Model Run History for the Current Year
| 81°F Max Temp Model | |||||||
| Model Run Date 2006 | Probability that crossover will occur earlier than given date | ||||||
| Earliest | 10 percent | 25 percent | MEDIAN | 75 percent | 90 percent | Latest | |
| 5/2 | 7/8 | 7/23 | 7/30 | 8/9 | 8/18 |
8/28 |
9/29 |
| 5/9 | 7/8 | 7/25 | 7/31 | 8/10 | 8/19 | 8/28 | 9/29 |
| 5/16 | 7/15 | 7/26 | 8/2 | 8/11 | 8/21 | 9/1 | 10/5 |
| 5/23 | 7/21 | 7/28 | 8/5 | 8/13 | 8/23 | 9/3 | 10/5 |
| 5/30 | 7/18 | 7/23 | 7/28 | 8/5 | 8/16 | 8/22 | 9/21 |
| 6/6 | 7/20 | 7/24 | 8/2 | 8/6 | 8/15 | 8/20 | 9/18 |
| 6/13 | 7/22 | 7/26 | 8/1 | 8/6 | 8/15 | 8/23 | 9/17 |
| 6/20 | 7/24 | 7/26 | 7/30 | 8/3 | 8/11 | 8/17 | 9/12 |
| 6/27 | 7/25 | 7/26 | 7/30 | 8/3 | 8/8 | 8/15 | 9/8 |
| 7/4 | 7/26 | 7/26 | 7/28 | 8/1 | 8/6 | 8/12 | 8/26 |
| 7/11 | 7/28 | 7/28 | 7/30 | 8/2 | 8/6 | 8/10 | 8/26 |
| 7/18 | 7/27 | 7/27 | 7/27 | 7/28 | 8/1 | 8/5 | 8/24 |
| 7/25 | 7/30 | 7/30 | 7/30 | 7/30 | 8/1 | 8/3 | 8/15 |
| 8/1 | 7/30 | 7/30 | 7/30 | 7/30 | 7/30 | 7/30 | 7/30 |
| 8/8 | 7/30 | 7/30 | 7/30 | 7/30 | 7/30 | 7/30 | 7/30 |
DEGREE DAY MODEL:
How to Interpret the Model Results
| DEGREE DAY MODEL - CURRENT MODEL RUN: | 8/8/2006 |
| Based on the current model run there is: | |
|
• a 50 percent chance that the crossover date will be later than |
August 3, 2006 |
|
• a 90 percent chance it will be earlier than |
August 3, 2006 |
| • and a 10 percent chance it will be earlier than | August 3, 2006 |
|
• The current run of the model has a median crossover date of |
August 3, 2006 |
|
• The earliest crossover date projected by the current model run is |
August 3, 2006 |
|
• The latest crossover date projected by the current model run is |
August 3, 2006 |
Model Run History for the Current Year
| Degree Day Model | |||||||
| Model Run Date 2006 | Probability that crossover will occur earlier than given date | ||||||
| Earliest | 10 percent | 25 percent | MEDIAN | 75 percent | 90 percent | Latest | |
| 5/2 | 7/6 | 7/22 | 7/30 | 8/10 | 8/22 | 8/30 | 9/18 |
| 5/9 | 7/8 | 7/23 | 7/31 | 8/11 | 8/23 | 8/31 | 9/18 |
| 5/16 | 7/12 | 7/24 | 8/2 | 8/12 | 8/25 | 9/1 | 9/20 |
| 5/23 | 7/16 | 7/28 | 8/6 | 8/15 | 8/27 | 9/5 | 9/20 |
| 5/30 | 7/12 | 7/23 | 7/31 | 8/9 | 8/19 | 8/29 | 9/15 |
| 6/6 | 7/15 | 7/25 | 8/2 | 8/9 | 8/18 | 8/28 | 9/14 |
| 6/13 | 7/19 | 7/25 | 8/3 | 8/12 | 8/20 | 8/27 | 9/14 |
| 6/20 | 7/18 | 7/25 | 8/2 | 8/10 | 8/16 | 8/23 | 9/10 |
| 6/27 | 7/17 | 7/28 | 8/2 | 8/9 | 8/14 | 8/21 | 9/5 |
| 7/4 | 7/18 | 7/29 | 8/1 | 8/8 | 8/13 | 8/17 | 8/31 |
| 7/11 | 7/27 | 8/1 | 8/4 | 8/9 | 8/14 | 8/20 | 8/31 |
| 7/18 | 7/27 | 8/1 | 8/3 | 8/6 | 8/11 | 8/15 | 8/27 |
| 7/25 | 8/1 | 8/3 | 8/5 | 8/7 | 8/10 | 8/14 | 8/26 |
| 8/1 | 8/3 | 8/3 | 8/3 | 8/3 | 8/3 | 8/4 | 8/10 |
| 8/8 | 8/3 | 8/3 | 8/3 | 8/3 | 8/3 | 8/3 | 8/3 |
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