During 2008, the models were run weekly from May 6 until August 6 when the model values converged. Shown below are the model results of August 6, which includes a summarization of the all of the model simulations.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE EXCEEDANCE
MODEL (Threshold of 81°F):
How to Interpret the Model Results
| 81°F MAX TEMP MODEL - CURRENT MODEL RUN: |
8/12/2008 |
| Based on the current model run there is: |
|
• a 50 percent
chance that the crossover date will be later than |
August 6, 2008 |
• a 90 percent chance
it will be earlier than |
August 6, 2008 |
| • and a 10 percent chance it will be earlier than |
August 6 , 2008 |
• The current run of the
model has a median crossover date of |
August 6, 2008 |
• The earliest crossover
date projected by the current model run is |
August 6, 2008 |
• The latest crossover date
projected by the current model run is |
August 6 , 2008 |
Model Run History for the Current Year
| 81°F
Max Temp Model |
| Model Run Date 2008 |
Probability that crossover
will occur earlier than given date |
| Earliest |
10 percent |
25 percent |
MEDIAN |
75 percent |
90 percent |
Latest |
| 5/6 |
7/7 |
7/23 |
7/29 |
8/8 |
8/18 |
8/27 |
9/28 |
| 5/13 |
7/12 |
7/25 |
7/31 |
8/9 |
8/20 |
8/31 |
10/2 |
| 5/20 |
7/18 |
7/28 |
8/2 |
8/11 |
8/22 |
8/31 |
10/4 |
| 5/27 |
7/23 |
7/30 |
8/5 |
8/13 |
8/25 |
9/5 |
10/4 |
| 6/3 |
7/25 |
7/30 |
8/3 |
8/12 |
8/22 |
8/31 |
9/27 |
| 6/10 |
7/23 |
7/29 |
8/2 |
8/10 |
8/17 |
8/26 |
9/20 |
| 6/17 |
7/24 |
7/27 |
7/31 |
8/6 |
8/14 |
8/20 |
9/15 |
| 6/23 |
7/28 |
7/30 |
8/2 |
8/7 |
8/15 |
8/21 |
9/12 |
| 7/1 |
7/30 |
7/31 |
8/2 |
8/6 |
8/13 |
8/19 |
9/11 |
| 7/8 |
8/3 |
8/4 |
8/5 |
8/10 |
8/14 |
8/22 |
9/7 |
| 7/15 |
8/3 |
8/3 |
8/4 |
8/7 |
8/13 |
8/16 |
9/4 |
| 7/22 |
8/4 |
8/4 |
8/5 |
8/7 |
8/11 |
8/14 |
8/26 |
| 7/29 |
8/5 |
8/5 |
8/5 |
8/7 |
8/9 |
8/13 |
8/24 |
| 8/5 |
8/7 |
8/7 |
8/7 |
8/7 |
8/8 |
8/9 |
8/14 |
| 8/12 |
8/6 |
8/6 |
8/6 |
8/6 |
8/6 |
8/6 |
8/6 |
DEGREE DAY MODEL:
How to Interpret the Model Results
| DEGREE DAY MODEL - CURRENT MODEL
RUN: |
8/26/2008 |
|
|
| Based on the current model run there is: |
|
• a 50 percent
chance that the crossover date will be later than |
August 22, 2008 |
• a 90 percent chance
it will be earlier than |
August 22, 2008 |
| • and a 10 percent chance it
will be earlier than |
August 22, 2008 |
• The current run of the
model has a median crossover date of |
August 22, 2008 |
• The earliest crossover
date projected by the current model run is |
August 22, 2008 |
• The latest crossover date
projected by the current model run is |
August 22, 2008 |
Model Run History for the Current
Year
| Degree
Day Model |
| Model Run Date 2008 |
Probability that crossover
will occur earlier than given date |
| Earliest |
10 percent |
25 percent |
MEDIAN |
75 percent |
90 percent |
Latest |
| 5/6 |
7/7 |
7/23 |
8/1 |
8/11 |
8/24 |
8/30 |
9/19 |
| 5/13 |
7/12 |
7/25 |
8/1 |
8/12 |
8/26 |
9/1 |
9/20 |
| 5/20 |
7/14 |
7/27 |
8/4 |
8/13 |
8/26 |
9/5 |
9/20 |
| 5/27 |
7/16 |
7/27 |
8/7 |
8/16 |
8/28 |
9/7 |
9/20 |
| 6/3 |
7/20 |
7/30 |
8/6 |
8/17 |
8/27 |
9/5 |
9/17 |
| 6/10 |
7/18 |
7/27 |
8/3 |
8/12 |
8/21 |
8/29 |
9/13 |
| 6/17 |
7/19 |
7/26 |
8/2 |
8/11 |
8/19 |
8/26 |
9/11 |
| 6/23 |
7/19 |
7/29 |
8/4 |
8/13 |
8/20 |
8/27 |
9/11 |
| 7/1 |
7/22 |
8/2 |
8/7 |
8/13 |
8/20 |
8/25 |
9/10 |
| 7/8 |
7/29 |
8/6 |
8/10 |
8/16 |
8/21 |
8/28 |
9/6 |
| 7/15 |
8/3 |
8/8 |
8/11 |
8/17 |
8/22 |
8/28 |
9/8 |
| 7/22 |
8/5 |
8/9 |
8/11 |
8/16 |
8/21 |
8/26 |
9/5 |
| 7/29 |
8/9 |
8/11 |
8/14 |
8/18 |
8/22 |
8/26 |
9/5 |
| 8/5 |
8/12 |
8/13 |
8/15 |
8/17 |
8/21 |
8/24 |
9/1 |
| 8/12 |
8/16 |
8/17 |
8/18 |
8/19 |
8/21 |
8/23 |
8/31 |
| 8/19 |
8/21 |
8/21 |
8/22 |
8/22 |
8/23 |
8/24 |
8/29 |
| 8/26 |
8/22 |
8/22 |
8/22 |
8/22 |
8/22 |
8/22 |
8/22 |
|
