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    Experimental Data. For Champaign-Urbana Only.
         

 

During 2009, the models were run weekly from May 5 until September 5 when the model values converged. Shown below are the model results of September 5, which includes a summarization of the all of the model simulations.  
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MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE EXCEEDANCE MODEL (Threshold of 81°F):
How to Interpret the Model Results

81°F MAX TEMP MODEL - CURRENT MODEL RUN:

8/25/2009

Based on the current model run there is:

    • a 50 percent chance that the crossover date will be later than

September 5, 2009

    • a 90 percent chance it will be earlier than

September 5, 2009
    • and a 10 percent chance it will be earlier than September 5, 2009

    • The current run of the model has a median crossover date of

September 5, 2009

    • The earliest crossover date projected by the current model run is

September 5, 2009

    • The latest crossover date projected by the current model run is

September 5, 2009

Model Run History for the Current Year

81°F Max Temp Model
Model Run Date 2009 Probability that crossover will occur earlier than given date
Earliest 10 percent 25 percent MEDIAN 75 percent 90 percent Latest
5/5 7/7 7/22 7/29 8/7 8/19 8/27 9/28
5/12 7/12 7/25 7/30 8/8 8/19 8/27 9/28
5/19 7/16 7/27 8/1 8/9 8/20 8/30 10/4
5/26 7/16 7/22 7/30 8/5 8/18 8/27 9/24
6/2 7/18 7/22 7/29 8/4 8/15 8/19 9/18
6/9 7/21 7/27 7/31 8/6 8/15 8/21 9/18
6/16 8/4 8/7 8/10 8/14 8/24 8/30 9/17
6/23 8/4 8/5 8/8 8/12 8/19 8/25 9/14
6/30 8/6 8/7 8/9 8/13 8/18 8/25 9/9
7/7 8/11 8/12 8/13 8/17 8/24 8/28 9/16
7/14 8/14 8/15 8/16 8/21 8/25 9/2 9/16
7/21 8/19 8/20 8/22 8/25 9/1 9/7 9/16
7/28 8/23 8/24 8/25 8/29 9/3 9/8 9/17
8/4 8/27 8/28 8/31 9/2 9/7 9/12 9/16
8/11 8/31 8/31 9/3 9/4 9/9 9/13 9/21
8/18 9/1 9/1 9/1 9/2 9/3 9/8 9/12
8/18 9/5 9/5 9/5 9/5 9/5 9/5 9/5

Graph of 81F Max Temp Model Data


DEGREE DAY MODEL:
How to Interpret the Model Results

DEGREE DAY MODEL - CURRENT MODEL RUN: 8/25/2009
Based on the current model run there is:

    • a 50 percent chance that the crossover date will be later than

August 20, 2009

    • a 90 percent chance it will be earlier than

August 20, 2009
    • and a 10 percent chance it will be earlier than August 20, 2009

    • The current run of the model has a median crossover date of

August 20, 2009

    • The earliest crossover date projected by the current model run is

August 20, 2009

    • The latest crossover date projected by the current model run is

August 20, 2009

Model Run History for the Current Year

Degree Day Model
Model Run Date 2009 Probability that crossover will occur earlier than given date
Earliest 10 percent 25 percent MEDIAN 75 percent 90 percent Latest
5/5 7/7 7/22 7/31 8/10 8/22 8/30 9/18
5/13 7/9 7/23 8/1 8/11 8/23 8/31 9/18
5/19 7/13 7/24 8/2 8/12 8/25 9/2 9/20
5/26 7/12 7/23 8/1 8/10 8/22 9/1 9/17
6/2 7/16 7/24 8/1 8/9 8/19 8/29 9/15
6/9 7/17 7/27 8/3 8/12 8/21 8/29 9/14
6/16 7/25 8/6 8/12 8/21 8/28 9/4 9/17
6/23 7/24 8/3 8/8 8/14 8/21 8/26 9/11
6/30 7/28 8/4 8/7 8/14 8/19 8/25 9/4
7/7 8/4 8/9 8/12 8/18 8/23 8/29 9/9
7/14 8/8 8/13 8/16 8/21 8/26 9/1 9/10
7/21 8/16 8/18 8/21 8/26 9/1 9/5 9/13
7/28 8/19 8/22 8/24 8/28 9/1 9/7 9/15
8/4 8/23 8/26 8/29 9/1 9/5 9/9 9/14
8/11 8/26 8/28 8/29 8/31 9/4 9/7 9/14
8/18 8/30 8/30 8/30 8/30 8/30 8/31 9/2
8/25 8/20 8/20 8/20 8/20 8/20 8/20 8/20

Graph of Degree Day Model Data


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NOTE: These models were derived from Champaign-Urbana, Illinois data.
the threshold temperature may vary regionally.

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