RESEARCH: WEST NILE VIRUS IN ILLINOIS

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About the Crossover Dates
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CHAMPAIGN-URBANA CROSSOVER MODEL
Experimental Data, for Champaign-Urbana Only — 2010

 

During 2010, the models were run weekly from May 5 until July 28 when the model values converged. Shown below are the model results of July 28, which includes a summarization of the all of the model simulations.


MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE EXCEEDANCE MODEL (Threshold of 80°F):

How to interpret the model results -

81°F MAX TEMP MODEL - CURRENT MODEL RUN: 7/28/2010
Based on the current model run there is:
    • a 50 percent chance that the crossover date will be later than July 19, 2010
    • a 90 percent chance it will be earlier than July 19, 2010
    • and a 10 percent chance it will be earlier than July 19, 2010
    • The current run of the model has a median crossover date of July 19, 2010
    • The earliest crossover date projected by the current model run is July 19, 2010
    • The latest crossover date projected by the current model run is July 19, 2010

Model Run History for 2010 -

81°F Max Temp Model
Model Run Date 2010 Probability that crossover will occur earlier than given date
Earliest 10 percent 25 percent MEDIAN 75 percent 90 percent Latest
5/5 7/8 7/23 7/28 8/6 8/17 8/24 9/28
5/12 7/16 7/25 7/30 8/7 8/19 8/28 9/30
5/19 7/12 7/18 7/24 7/31 8/11 8/18 9/17
5/26 7/17 7/20 7/25 8/1 8/11 8/17 9/16
6/2 7/13 7/18 7/22 7/28 8/4 8/11 9/12
6/9 7/17 7/19 7/23 7/27 8/3 8/9 9/5
6/16 7/16 7/17 7/19 7/22 7/27 8/2 8/16
6/23 7/18 7/18 7/19 7/22 7/25 7/30 8/14
6/30 719 7/19 7/19 7/21 7/23 7/25 8/9
7/07 7/20 7/20 7/20 7/20 7/21 7/23 8/4
7/14 7/19 7/19 7/19 7/19 7/19 7/19 7/19
7/21 7/19 7/19 7/19 7/19 7/19 7/19 7/19
7/28 7/19 7/19 7/19 7/19 7/19 7/19 7/19

Graph of 81F Max Temp Model Data


DEGREE DAY MODEL:

How to Interpret the Model Results -

DEGREE DAY MODEL - CURRENT MODEL RUN: 7/28/2010
Based on the current model run there is:
    • a 50 percent chance that the crossover date will be later than July 23, 2010
    • a 90 percent chance it will be earlier than July 23, 2010
    • and a 10 percent chance it will be earlier than July 23, 2010
    • The current run of the model has a median crossover date of July 23, 2010
    • The earliest crossover date projected by the current model run is July 23, 2010
    • The latest crossover date projected by the current model run is July 23, 2010

Model Run History for 2010 -

Degree Day Model
Model Run Date 2010 Probability that crossover will occur earlier than given date
Earliest 10 percent 25 percent MEDIAN 75 percent 90 percent Latest
5/5 7/11 7/23 8/1 8/12 8/23 9/1 9/19
5/12 7/14 7/27 8/4 8/14 8/25 9/3 9/20
5/19 7/10 7/22 7/30 8/8 8/19 8/29 9/15
5/26 7/15 7/24 8/1 8/8 8/18 8/27 9/14
6/2 7/13 7/20 7/27 8/3 8/11 8/18 9/7
6/9 7/16 7/20 7/27 8/3 8/10 8/17 9/4
6/16 7/12 7/17 7/21 7/25 7/30 8/3 8/14
6/23 7/13 7/19 7/22 7/25 7/31 8/3 8/13
6/30 7/17 7/23 7/25 7/28 8/1 8/4 8/14
7/07 7/22 7/23 7/24 7/26 7/28 7/31 8/10
7/14 7/23 7/23 7/23 7/23 7/23 7/23 7/23
7/21 7/23 7/23 7/23 7/23 7/23 7/23 7/23
7/28 7/23 7/23 7/23 7/23 7/23 7/23 7/23


Graph of Degree Day Model Data


These graphs show the results of the individual model runs so far this season. As more of the “actual” weather is included in the model runs (i.e. as the summer progresses) and less “probable” weather (i.e. past climatology) is included, the plots of the dates will tend to converge on the crossover date.

NOTE: These models were derived from Champaign-Urbana, Illinois data. The threshold temperature may vary regionally.

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