West Nile Virus Mosquito Crossover Dates

Experimental Data, for Champaign-Urbana Only - 2011


During 2011, the models were run weekly from May 4 until July 27 when the model values converged. Shown below are the model results of July 27, which includes a summarization of the all of the model simulations.

 

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE EXCEEDANCE MODEL (Threshold of 80°F):

How to interpret the model results
81°F MAX TEMP MODEL - CURRENT MODEL RUN: 7/27/2011
Based on the current model run there is:
    • a 50 percent chance that the crossover date will be later than July 28, 2011
    • a 90 percent chance it will be earlier than July 28, 2011
    • and a 10 percent chance it will be earlier than July 28, 2011
    • The current run of the model has a median crossover date of July 28, 2011
    • The earliest crossover date projected by the current model run is July 28, 2011
    • The latest crossover date projected by the current model run is July 28, 2011
Model Run History for the Current Year
81°F Max Temp Model
Model Run Date 2011 Probability that crossover will occur earlier than given date
Earliest 10 percent 25 percent MEDIAN 75 percent 90 percent Latest
5/4 7/8 7/23 7/30 8/8 8/20 8/28 9/30
5/11 7/7 7/22 7/28 8/7 8/18 8/27 9/26
5/18 7/14 7/23 7/29 8/6 8/19 8/28 9/30
5/25 7/15 7/20 7/27 8/3 8/16 8/21 9/22
6/1 7/16 7/20 7/25 7/31 8/7 8/15 9/14
6/8 7/12 7/15 7/18 7/21 7/29 8/3 8/18
6/15 7/20 7/21 7/24 7/28 8/3 8/8 8/25
6/22 7/27 7/28 7/30 8/2 8/8 8/15 9/5
6/29 7/27 7/27 7/28 7/31 8/3 8/9 8/25
7/6 7/28 7/28 7/29 7/30 8/2 8/7 8/25
7/13 7/30 7/30 7/30 7/31 8/2 8/6 8/19
7/20 7/27 7/27 7/27 7/27 7/27 7/27 7/27
7/27 7/28 7/28 7/28 7/28 7/28 7/28 7/28

Graph of 81F Max Temp Model Data

DEGREE DAY MODEL:

How to Interpret the Model Results
DEGREE DAY MODEL - CURRENT MODEL RUN: 7/27/2011
Based on the current model run there is:
    • a 50 percent chance that the crossover date will be later than July 23, 2011
    • a 90 percent chance it will be earlier than July 23, 2011
    • and a 10 percent chance it will be earlier than July 23, 2011
    • The current run of the model has a median crossover date of July 23, 2011
    • The earliest crossover date projected by the current model run is July 23, 2011
    • The latest crossover date projected by the current model run is July 23, 2011
Model Run History for the Current Year
Degree Day Model
Model Run Date 2011 Probability that crossover will occur earlier than given date
Earliest 10 percent 25 percent MEDIAN 75 percent 90 percent Latest
5/4 7/9 7/24 8/2 8/12 8/25 9/3 9/20
5/11 7/8 7/23 7/31 8/11 8/22 8/31 9/18
5/18 7/11 7/23 8/1 8/11 8/22 8/31 9/19
5/25 7/12 7/22 7/30 8/9 8/20 8/30 9/16
6/1 7/14 7/22 7/30 8/6 8/14 8/22 9/10
6/8 7/13 7/18 7/23 7/30 8/7 8/13 8/29
6/15 7/14 7/20 7/26 8/1 8/7 8/11 8/27
6/22 7/16 7/25 7/29 8/3 8/9 8/15 8/25
6/29 7/18 7/25 7/28 8/1 8/6 8/9 8/19
7/6 7/24 7/28 7/29 8/1 8/5 8/10 8/20
7/13 7/26 7/27 7/27 7/28 7/30 8/1 8/9
7/20 7/24 7/24 7/24 7/24 7/24 7/24 7/24
7/27 7/23 7/23 7/23 7/23 7/23 7/23 7/23

Graph of Degree Day Model Data

These graphs show the results of the individual model runs so far this season. As more of the “actual” weather is included in the model runs (i.e. as the summer progresses) and less “probable” weather (i.e. past climatology) is included, the plots of the dates will tend to converge on the crossover date.

Click for why 2002 Click for why 2002 up arrowTop