West Nile Virus Mosquito Crossover Dates

Experimental Data, for Champaign-Urbana Only - 2013


During 2013, the models were run weekly from May 22 until August 7 when the model values converged. Shown below are the model results of August 7, which includes a summarization of the all of the model simulations.

 

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE EXCEEDANCE MODEL (Threshold of 80°F):

How to interpret the model results
81°F MAX TEMP MODEL - CURRENT MODEL RUN: 8/7/2013
Based on the current model run there is:
    • a 50 percent chance that the crossover date will be later than August 29, 2013
    • a 90 percent chance it will be earlier than September 6, 2013
    • and a 10 percent chance it will be earlier than August 25, 2013
    • The current run of the model has a median crossover date of August 29, 2013
    • The earliest crossover date projected by the current model run is August 25, 2013
    • The latest crossover date projected by the current model run is September 14, 2013
Model Run History for the Current Year
81°F Max Temp Model
Model Run Date 2013 Probability that crossover will occur earlier than given date
Earliest 10 percent 25 percent MEDIAN 75 percent 90 percent Latest
5/22 7/18 7/23 7/29 8/4 8/16 8/21 9/19
5/29 7/19 7/23 7/29 8/4 8/13 8/21 9/17
6/5 7/23 7/28 8/1 8/6 8/16 8/26 9/17
6/12 7/28 7/30 8/3 8/8 8/16 8/24 9/15
6/19 7/28 7/29 8/1 8/5 8/11 8/21 9/12
6/26 8/2 8/3 8/5 8/9 8/16 8/22 9/10
7/3 8/4 8/4 8/6 8/9 8/14 8/21 9/7
7/10 8/10 8/10 8/12 8/16 8/21 8/29 9/14
7/17 8/7 8/7 8/8 8/10 8/14 8/19 8/30
7/24 8/14 8/14 8/15 8/18 8/21 8/26 9/10
7/31 8/20 8/20 8/21 8/22 8/28 9/1 9/13
8/7 8/25 8/25 8/27 8/29 8/31 9/6 9/14


Graph of 81F Max Temp Model Data

DEGREE DAY MODEL:

How to Interpret the Model Results
DEGREE DAY MODEL - CURRENT MODEL RUN: 8/7/2013
Based on the current model run there is:
    • a 50 percent chance that the crossover date will be later than August 24, 2013
    • a 90 percent chance it will be earlier than August 28, 2013
    • and a 10 percent chance it will be earlier than August 21, 2013
    • The current run of the model has a median crossover date of August 24, 2013
    • The earliest crossover date projected by the current model run is August 20, 2013
    • The latest crossover date projected by the current model run is September 5, 2013
Model Run History for the Current Year
Degree Day Model
Model Run Date 2013 Probability that crossover will occur earlier than given date
Earliest 10 percent 25 percent MEDIAN 75 percent 90 percent Latest
5/22 7/13 7/24 7/31 8/9 8/19 8/29 9/15
5/29 7/15 7/25 8/1 8/9 8/19 8/28 9/14
6/5 7/18 7/25 8/2 8/11 8/18 8/26 9/13
6/12 7/19 7/27 8/3 8/11 8/19 8/25 9/11
6/19 7/17 7/27 8/1 8/7 8/14 8/21 9/5
6/26 7/22 8/2 8/5 8/11 8/18 8/23 9/5
7/3 7/29 8/3 8/6 8/12 8/17 8/23 9/4
7/10 8/7 8/10 8/14 8/19 8/26 9/3 9/12
7/17 8/4 8/6 8/9 8/12 8/17 8/20 8/31
7/24 8/10 8/12 8/13 8/17 8/20 8/23 9/4
7/31 8/16 8/17 8/19 8/21 8/24 8/28 9/6
8/7 8/20 8/21 8/22 8/24 8/26 8/28 9/5


Graph of Degree Day Model Data

These graphs show the results of the individual model runs so far this season. As more of the “actual” weather is included in the model runs (i.e. as the summer progresses) and less “probable” weather (i.e. past climatology) is included, the plots of the dates will tend to converge on the crossover date.

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