RESEARCH: WEST NILE VIRUS IN ILLINOIS

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About the Crossover Dates
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CHAMPAIGN-URBANA CROSSOVER MODEL
Experimental Data, for Champaign-Urbana Only — 2015

 

During 2015, the models were run weekly from May 6 until August 5 when the model values converged. Shown below are the model results of August 5, which includes a summarization of the all of the model simulations.


MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE EXCEEDANCE MODEL (Threshold of 80°F):

How to interpret the model results -

81°F MAX TEMP MODEL - CURRENT MODEL RUN: 7/29/2015
Based on the current model run there is:
    • a 50 percent chance that the crossover date will be later than August 6, 2015
    • a 90 percent chance it will be earlier than August 6, 2015
    • and a 10 percent chance it will be earlier than August 6, 2015
    • The current run of the model has a median crossover date of August 6, 2015
    • The earliest crossover date projected by the current model run is August 6, 2015
    • The latest crossover date projected by the current model run is August 6, 2015

Model Run History for 2015 -

81°F Max Temp Model
Model Run Date 2015 Probability that crossover will occur earlier than given date
Earliest 10 percent 25 percent MEDIAN 75 percent 90 percent Latest
5/6 7/11 7/21 7/28 8/6 8/18 8/24 9/29
5/13 7/17 7/25 7/31 8/8 8/21 8/30 9/30
5/20 7/17 7/24 7/29 8/4 8/17 8/22 9/23
5/27 7/14 7/18 7/23 7/28 8/7 8/13 9/14
6/3 7/17 7/21 7/26 7/31 8/7 8/15 9/14
6/10 7/16 7/18 7/21 7/26 8/1 8/7 8/25
6/17 7/19 7/20 7/23 7/26 7/30 8/5 8/22
6/24 7/27 7/27 7/29 8/2 8/7 8/13 8/28
7/1 7/29 7/29 7/30 8/2 8/7 8/12 8/27
7/8 8/2 8/2 8/3 8/5 8/11 8/16 9/1
7/15 8/5 8/5 8/5 8/8 8/12 8/16 8/28
7/22 8/6 8/6 8/6 8/7 8/9 8/12 8/24
7/29 8/6 8/6 8/6 8/6 8/6 8/6 8/6

Graph of 81F Max Temp Model Data


DEGREE DAY MODEL:

How to Interpret the Model Results -

DEGREE DAY MODEL - CURRENT MODEL RUN: 8/5/2015
Based on the current model run there is:
    • a 50 percent chance that the crossover date will be later than August 11, 2016
    • a 90 percent chance it will be earlier than August 11, 2016
    • and a 10 percent chance it will be earlier than August 11, 2016
    • The current run of the model has a median crossover date of August 11, 2016
    • The earliest crossover date projected by the current model run is August 11, 2016
    • The latest crossover date projected by the current model run is August 11, 2016

Model Run History for 2015 -

Degree Day Model
Model Run Date 2015 Probability that crossover will occur earlier than given date
Earliest 10 percent 25 percent MEDIAN 75 percent 90 percent Latest
5/6 7/9 7/21 7/29 8/9 8/21 8/28 9/18
5/13 7/10 7/18 7/26 8/5 8/17 8/26 9/15
5/20 7/9 7/21 7/28 8/6 8/17 8/24 9/14
5/27 7/12 7/21 7/27 8/3 8/13 8/20 9/10
6/3 7/15 7/21 7/28 8/6 8/13 8/18 9/9
6/10 7/15 7/19 7/25 8/2 8/9 8/15 9/3
6/17 7/14 7/21 7/26 7/31 8/6 8/10 8/26
6/24 7/17 7/27 7/30 8/5 8/11 8/15 8/28
7/1 7/25 7/30 8/1 8/8 8/13 8/18 8/27
7/8 7/30 8/3 8/5 8/10 8/15 8/20 9/2
7/15 8/2 8/4 8/6 8/10 8/14 8/18 8/29
7/22 8/6 8/7 8/8 8/10 8/13 8/15 8/24
7/29 8/10 8/11 8/11 8/12 8/14 8/16 8/24
8/5 8/11 8/11 8/11 8/11 8/11 8/11 8/11


Graph of Degree Day Model Data


These graphs show the results of the individual model runs so far this season. As more of the “actual” weather is included in the model runs (i.e. as the summer progresses) and less “probable” weather (i.e. past climatology) is included, the plots of the dates will tend to converge on the crossover date.

NOTE: These models were derived from Champaign-Urbana, Illinois data. The threshold temperature may vary regionally.

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